4 Demographic Shifts Worth Watching
April 3, 2018
The aging of America, more immigrants, and a population that's heading south are a few big trends to watch that will likely have a great impact on the housing market over the next decade, writes John Burns, CEO of John Burns Real Estate Consulting, in a column for ATTOM Data Solutions. His team spent more than 9,000 hours researching demographic shifts that will occur over the next decade. In his column, Burns highlighted some of his findings from a book that he and Chris Porter published, Big Shifts Ahead: Demographic Clarity for Businesses. Here are some of the demographic trends Burns says to watch over the next 10 years:
1. More people over the age of 65: Thirty-eight percent of the population will be over the age of 65 within the next decade—the number will hit 66 million people by 2025. Burns says this will spark even greater demand for high-density, low-maintenance living and what he calls “surban” (urban living in suburban environments). Burns also predicts that more of these baby boomers will help their children with down payments on a home in order to keep their children living nearby.
2. More affluent immigrants: Burns estimates there will be 8 million increasingly affluent immigrants over the next decade. “Today’s immigrant tends to arrive on an airplane from China, Brazil, and other countries where the economies have been booming,” Burns writes. “While most expect some slowing in those economies, the pent-up demand to move to the U.S. remains large.”
3. More people head south: Sixty-two percent of the population growth over the next decade will likely be in the South, where already 42 percent of the nation lives, Burns notes. “Plenty of jobs, affordable housing, and warm weather will make Texas, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and surrounding states the growth engine,” Burns writes.
4. More people passing away and leaving a household behind: Burns estimates there will be 25.8 million newly formed households in the next 10 years, and 13.3 million of those will move to a household abandoned by someone who passes away or moves into an assisted living facility. “The record number of people passing away has been one big reason that net household formation has been slow,” Burns writes. “Nonetheless, these 25.8 million want to live differently than prior generations, and will fill their homes up with all sorts of technology.”
Source: “Finally: Demographic Clarity,” ATTOM Data Solutions (March 30, 2018)
Updated: September 20, 2019